And so the time has come that yet more horribly misleading, but awfully optimistic figures are being announced. eBook unit sales have matched print sales for Amazon.
Before I go any further, I’ll point to Of Amazon and eBooks. That fracas was over Amazon attempting to force lower eBook prices to help subsidize the sales of Kindle units, which thankfully was dropped fully in favour of their incentive program at 70%. It also has a full and comprehensive book pricing breakdown; what you need to know: 10% of cover price covers printing, 10% goes to the distributor and a whopping 40% is taken by the retailer, which is why Walmart manages to sell big titles at 30% and sometimes even 37% off and still make money.
Now onto the news. Amazon’s present claim is grossly misleading, eBook sales still only attribute to around 9% of the total publishing market. Total Book sales for January 2011 was at $805.7 million, and eBooks were only $69.9 million of that.
What’s actually going on?
Mass Market Paperbacks and Trade Paperback sales have been losing ground, notably Mass Markets as this is the key area where eBooks are cannibalizing the market. Why? Because eBooks are the new mass market books. They have virtually zero expenses for editorial work as this has already been done in more expensive editions. They’re released cheap and you’ll likely see the ebook copy only about 10% less than the paperback. Why? As I said, 10% of the cover price goes to printing. The 10% for distribution is still in the midst with Amazon charging kickbacks to the seller.
Hardbacks quite interestingly are still going strong, they have yet to see a true loss in sales. This may be because publishers are recognizing them for what they truly are – luxury items. They’re coming in limited editions, and I don’t doubt it’ll be long before they’re coming in boxed sets with extras and short stories, author commentary and such attached to justify a $50 cover price.
What is truly great news for the publishing industry is this: Mass Market and Trade paperback sales aren’t just disappearing into eBooks. It appears that on the whole, a portion of eBook sales are complimenting the industry, meaning eBooks might actually be increasing the amount of money people are spending on reading (which will mean in about a decade we might have some awesome book->movie adaptations going again).
So is there any really great news? Yes, there actually is. In the month of February, publishings generally low-point eBook sales were higher than any category with $90 million in sales.
Is there any awesome news?
Perhaps, if you have patience.
This story isn’t new, after all we were hearing these claims 5 years ago about MP3 sales, but they’ve been forgotten now. Perhaps we nerds just like to tout the indie stories like Amanda Hocking and all the other self-publishers doing amazingly (which incidentally aren’t included in any industry figures, electronic or paper). What’s the news? Music physical sales will hit a record low this year (estimated) at $5.7 billion, and MP3 sales will hit a record high at $5.7 billion. Although it’s entirely possible MP3 sales will finally overtake physical sales.
So what does this tell us? Aside from the fact that I haven’t played a CD in around 3 years, and haven’t bought a CD player since my Sony Discman in highschool, it tells us that in around 5 years we may see eBook sales matching total Print sales.
What will be truly amazing is that people could have a $400-million dollar market available literally at the click of an upload button. Given companies like Smashwords, distributing purely indie artists through Amazon, Apple and Sony, it could be great. Even though I’ll be sad to see the sexy hard covers go, it will be a great day for the author.
Last words? Don’t hold me on the predictions, eBooks aren’t purely cannibalizing the market like MP3′s were. We have radicals that people aren’t capable of predicting here like Ms. Hocking. I hadn’t heard a peep of her at the time of my first Of Amazon and eBooks, she didn’t publish until 2 months later and made 2 million dollars in sales in 1 year.
Which leaves me with my last words. Someone kick the crap out of me if I’m making another one of these posts without at least having an eBook up for sale.
